Simulating Urban Growth in Nakuru (Kenya) based on a Constrained Cellular Automata Model and Decade Landsat-data
Mubea, Kenneth; Goetzke, Roland; Menz, Gunter
University of Bonn, GERMANY
During the last decade there has been exponential increase of urban areas in Africa. This has become a major concern in the context of local environmental change and the increasing amount of impervious surface. The modelling and projecting of land use and land cover change is essential to the assessment of resultant environmental impacts. Land use and land cover models can support decision makers make informed decisions in simulating various scenarios and quantifying the impact of remedy actions. In order to investigate land use and land cover changes in Nakuru, Landsat images of 1986, 2000 and 2010 were used coupled with geographic information systems (GIS). An integrated system-oriented land use and land cover model called Urban Growth Model (UGM) was used in this research for the spatial explicit simulation of land use and land cover change in Nakuru. The changes in built-up areas were compared to the simulation results based on cellular automata. UGM was integrated in the user friendly modelling frame-work XULU (eXtendable Unified Land Use Modelling Platform). UGM was calibrated for Nakuru and simulation done up to the year 2030 when Kenya plans to attain Vision 2030. Land use and land cover change scenarios information based on diverse driving forces is useful for the comprehensive approach in land use and land cover planning and an integrated management of resources. Subsequently this ensures sustainability of land and achievement of social equity, economic efficiency and environmental sustainability.